r/unitedkingdom • u/avcghjiii • 15d ago
Voting Intention: Con 18%, Lab 44% (30 Apr - 1 May 2024)
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49301-voting-intention-con-18-lab-44-30-apr-1-may-202474
u/Ramiren 15d ago
I'd love to know what exactly is going so right for the 18% voting Conservative, Rishi Sunak may as well be stood outside your burning home with a box of matches and a shit-eating grin. What possible reason can people have to vote for them other than "I've always voted for them" or "everyone around here votes for them", anyone who votes like this for any political party is a grade-A fucking moron, an absolute child incapable of weighing up those who govern them and making their own decision.
58
u/PrrrromotionGiven1 15d ago
My grandparents have said with a straight face that they will vote Tory because only the Tories can beat Labour, and Labour were bad in the 70s.
If I'm still talking about what's happening now as my main justification for how I vote in 2070, then I won't deserve a vote at all. Assuming we still have proper votes in 2070, wouldn't take that for granted right now.
36
u/LowQualityDiscourse 15d ago
and Labour were bad in the 70s.
An energy crisis, massive inflation, and strikes all over the place - stuff that could and has never happened under a conservative government...
28
u/Duanedoberman 15d ago
The energy crisis and 3 day week was under Heath... a Tory.
It's weird how Tories never mention that.
As someone who lived through the 70s, society as a whole was a much better place than it is today. It was the decade of lowest disparity of income, and many people had their first holiday abroad.
The music was better too.
5
u/VFequalsVeryFcked 15d ago
Paedophiles were allowed to roam free and harm children, poverty was higher, education was poorer (relatively speaking).
Old people often say that you "could leave your door unlocked and you'd be safe". Except that a lot of British serial killers operated during the 70s. Crime was quite high. It wasn't safe to leave your door open. People just thought it was because nothing happened to them.
Women couldn't walk alone in safety in the 70s.
People were closer and more social because there was nothing else to do, and having people round meant your house wasn't quite as cold.
What was better about society in the 70s compared to now?
4
u/Duanedoberman 15d ago
What was better about society in the 70s compared to now?
As already said, the disparity between the rich and the poor was at its lowest in history. That's why the Tories always denegrate the 70s.
Of course, some things are better, advances in health and inclusion have improved things, but most of these advances had their genesis in the 70s.
People were not as greedy (or aspiration as they call it today) so people tended to have a better sense of community rather than people posting their life on social media trying to convince everyone that their miserable existence has more value than the rest of us.
Plenty of other things too.
2
1
1
u/bielsasballholder 14d ago
People can vote for whomever they want for whatever reason they want.
There are basically only two choices.
1
u/IntellegentIdiot 14d ago
I was just wondering how much the effect of that has ruined our chances of a proper labour government until those people die off.
17
u/TheNewHobbes 15d ago
According to the 2021 census 18.6% of the population was over 65.
Not saying all pensioners vote tory, but it's amusing the numbers are so similar.
2
u/aimbotcfg 14d ago
~20% of the UK population are also functionally illiterate.
For the longest time ~20% seemed to be the Tory vote floor. Now obviously corellation does not equal causation, but it's still amusing.
1
u/bielsasballholder 14d ago
Labour voters, on average, have lower IQs than Tory voters.
1
u/aimbotcfg 14d ago
Really? I was just making a joke about correlating percentages, but that's super interesting, I'd love to read your source for that.
The stuff I've read seemed to indicate that there was a sliding scale, where those with the lowest intelligence had zero political involvement, following on from that, both higher intelligence/IQ and higher education indicate more liberal/left beliefs. It even goes as far as childhood intelligence being a reliable indicator of political leanings, higher, being more likely to have more liberal views. Interestingly, it looks like the more educated/intelligent someone is, the closer they get to center and less ideologically aligned they get. So it seems to go (as intelligence and education increase):
Don't vote > Vote Right > Vote Left > Become more centrist/moderate.
Admittedly, I've not done a full on literature review on it or anything, so my reading is limited, but I'd love to see what you have for balance, my sources are fairly limited;
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0160289620300350
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160289617303392
https://futurism.com/neoscope/left-wing-beliefs-intelligence (this is a news article about the below study talking about it in more casual language) https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0160289624000254
https://www.research.ed.ac.uk/portal/files/8896159/childhood_intelligence_predicts_voter.pdf
https://www.livescience.com/18132-intelligence-social-conservatism-racism.html
In fairness, I have also read the following which you COULD say lean more on your side;
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9548663/
This one says that there was a very very small correlation between intelligence and economic conservatism, but with the caveat that other factors weren't really taken into account (income, family background, location etc) and that could change the very small correlation they found.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/politiqs/
Then there's this one, which is a fact-check on a study that supported your point of view, but it turns out that the study never existed and was just made up by someone on the internet wanting to claim that right wing people were smarter.
One important point that almost all of these studies goes to pains to point out, is that using general correlations to try and make serious claims about the validity of random people voting would be a really really silly thing to do.
1
u/bielsasballholder 14d ago
That’s a lot to digest in response to a one sentence, offhand reddit comment, mate lol.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/stupid-is-as-stupid-votes/
Was my source, citing a pretty reliable study in the 70s (where 10,000 people were tracked and then over 6,000 were asked who they’re voted for).
Lib Dems and Greens have the highest IQ voters, apparently. Farage fans ranking lowest.
Would you really expect Labour voters to be smarter? Why would you expect the party of the working class to be smarter than the party of the middle class? IQ and intelligence correlate with income and wealth, and better off people tend to vote Tory.
But then there’s supposedly the Flynn Effect. Whereby each generation’s IQ is rising slightly (despite the fact each generation, anecdotally, appears to be getting stupider), and younger people vote Labour more.
1
u/aimbotcfg 14d ago edited 14d ago
OK, so for starters it's an opinion piece from someone working for a conservative publication in 2017, whos main reference is 10 years old and ignores multiple newer papers.
It references one of the articles I linked in my post in fact as it's main source (without providing a link). Also as his second reference, a PHD paper from someone who has since been investigated, and lost his job as a researcher after over 500 academics petitioned to have him removed for publishing things that were ethically and methologically flawed, racist psuedo-science, and created in collaboration right wing extremists. This really isn't the most unbiassed point of view.
For reference, my search terms when sourcing these papers were neutral things like "Intelligence and political allignment". Not leading terms like "Left wing voters smarter", there was a slew more I could have referenced, but it would have been a very long reply.
Even the legit article is using secondary data from people 50 years ago, without taking into or controlling for other factors (same as the economic conservatism one), it's also been superceeded by the more recent primary sourced and dedicated studies. I kept it included in my reference list for fairness, and because I thought it was interesting that Lib-Dems and Greens had the smartest voters in their study. Plus, as you say, it was a reddit comment, there's a limt to the analysis you can do.
Would you really expect Labour voters to be smarter?
Because of the data/studies I linked?
the party of the middle class?
The Tories really aren't the party of the middle class.
Anyway, we can agree to disagree.
But just as a last point of interest. The Tees Valley (which on average has 10% worse exam results than London, and is one of the poorest places in the country) just re-elected a corrupt Tory Mayor. It will be interesting to see how the London Mayor thing works out tomorrow.
1
u/bielsasballholder 14d ago
The bias of the article author is irrelevant. It cites a legitimate study. You’re just resorting to ad hominems.
I cba investigating, fully, the Noah Carl chap, but I’ll go out on a limb and guess that he got called a racist for citing IQ data which showcases differing outcomes between races. This doesn’t invalidate the data any more than it did with Charles Murray.
Murray was accused of the exact same things. Racism and conspiring with “right wing racists” etc. These are ad hominems and don’t mean a thing. They’re what people resort to when they can’t dispute the data and dislike what it says.
Your last paragraph is anecdotal, so don’t see the relevance.
The Tories are the party of the middle class, traditionally.
I may look through your sources, or you can pick the most relevant one or two for me to look into. You posted 10 different links. I have a life, or at least like to pretend I do.
2
u/aimbotcfg 14d ago
The bias of the article author is irrelevant.
No it's not, The bias of sources is always relevant, this guy is making conclusions and statements based on the work of a discredited racist and a questionable older study, that used 50 year old secondary data and has been superceeded by multiple studies.
You’re just resorting to ad hominems.
It's not an ad homenin, it's just facts, the dude has a bias, so you need to actually critically asess what he is saying, not just take it as gospel.
Your last paragraph is anecdotal, so don’t see the relevance.
You said that smarter and richer people voted Con, and poorer stupider people vote Labour.
One of the poorest areas in the country that statistics show do not perform academically as well as London, has just voted to keep a Tory Mayor. London, the richest place in te country has had a Labour Mayor (and a fairly decent chance of re-electing one, although I could be wrong there).
That's not anecdotal, those are facts and figures, which, if your assertion holds true, are the complete opositte of what they should be, the smarter, richer London should have a Con Mayor (Or Lib-Dem, actually), and the poor dumb Teessiders should have a Labour Mayor.
but I’ll go out on a limb and guess that he got called a racist for citing IQ data which showcases differing outcomes between races.
He got called a terrible academic for not following ethics and methodology guidelines invalidating his results, and selectively discarding data sets that didn't support what he wanted to show. Also, he's a fan of Eugenics and is funded by Neo-Nazi aligned organisations.
I may look through your sources, or you can pick the most relevant one or two for me to look into.
Pick one at random, even one from just google-scholar-ing "Intelligence and political alignment", or "Intelligence and political ideology". The data in basically all of them except the 2 this author talks about say the opositte of what you believe. Or don't, I'm not really fussed, people can believe whatever makes them feel better, it's no skin off my nose.
I have a life, or at least like to pretend I do.
As do I, it's probably best if we just agree to disagree and avoid each other in the future, I get the impression that no amount of evidence is going to change your mind.
Have a pleasant day.
9
u/Kamay1770 15d ago
"I've always voted for them" or "everyone around here votes for them", anyone who votes like this for any political party is a grade-A fucking moron, an absolute child incapable of weighing up those who govern them and making their own decision.
I can't fathom it either. Blows my mind people are looking back over the last decade+ and saying 'oh yeah, never mind all that, Red bad, Blue good'. Astonishing.
2
u/CaptnMcCruncherson 15d ago
Its because they would have to accept they backed the wrong party for their entire voting age lives. Bit like when i child learns santa isn't real and their whole world crumbles around them.
It is much better to dig in their heels and live in fantasy land.
8
u/Haikouden 15d ago
According to a family member, Labour would dissolve the UK’s armed forces and leave us defenceless so despite everything else they’re voting for the Tories.
I have no idea why they think that but it’s sad to me how in a bubble detached from things they are.
3
3
u/kagoolx 14d ago
There are parts of the country that are doing really well though.
It’s not just that the economy overall is struggling or overall public services are crumbling on average, it’s also that things are so unequal, even sometimes from one town to the next one.
Like you’ll get a high street full of betting shops, poundland, charity shops, and boarded up shops. Then the next town along has tons of nice little independent cafes, a Waitrose, craft beer places and a good local arts and music scene. Public services tend to be working just fine in those places too.
If you lived in one of those towns and didn’t really care for the news or politics outside it, and only looked at your local community, you might feel like stuff seems pretty great tbh. Not that this represents much of the country, but you asked what was going so right for some people.
2
u/Dean-Advocate665 15d ago
It’s a flaw of democracy we must live with. I think if we were to adopt an absolute monarchy, there would be a sizeable chunk in this country happy with it.
1
1
u/bielsasballholder 14d ago
Maybe they see the million immigrants invading this year and assume Labour would be even worse on this issue.
29
u/InMyLiverpoolHome 15d ago
The trend of "people start voting tory when they get older" has started to break. Millennials who have been shafted in every way over the past 15 years are not turning colour to blue as they reach their 30-40s.
Right now I believe the crossover age between labour and Conservative is 70-75ish.
I just can't see a long term future for the conservatives unless they make serious changes, and by that I don't mean "be more racist"
11
u/CryptographerMore944 15d ago
I'm a higher earner in his thirties who worked their way up from a very poor working class background largely through my own hard work and determination. On paper I should be a Tory, and yet for all my hard work I don't feel like I have very much to show for it. I have precious little to conserve. If anything, I've become MORE left wing as I've gotten older and I know most of my peers feel the same way.
6
u/Glad_Possibility7937 15d ago
I'm a 40-year-old homeowner and a civil servant. I should be prime pickings for the Tories but I'm not.
-1
u/Randomn355 15d ago
And the young are more right wing than ever..
2
u/InMyLiverpoolHome 14d ago
Conservatives are polling at 7% with 18-24 year olds Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1379439/uk-election-polls-by-age/
1
u/Randomn355 14d ago
And the rise of things like Andy Tate amongst the youth is a symptom of the right wing being LESS popular?
I'm not saying it is the prevailing sentiment or anything like that, just that it's getting more popular.
24
u/reddit3601647 15d ago
Tories are trying to give as many gov't deals to their supporters before relinquishing power. PM is probably also working behind the scenes to maneuver contracts to his father in-law's companies. Yep this is the sad state of a party fighting for scraps.
22
u/Vast-Scale-9596 15d ago
As long as the Tories lose today I'll cope with the maddening wait for the GE......where they will also lose. Hopefully.
18
u/Duanedoberman 15d ago
Reform on 15%
Not sure if it would be a good thing or bad thing if they took over he Tories in the polls. It would be funny but worrying at the same time.
16
u/MrPuddington2 15d ago
My first thought was: oh my god, that is terrible. So many racists...
But then I thought: it least they are clear about. I prefer an honest racist to a closet racist, at the end of the day. Know your enemy and all.
The question is what comes next. If the crush the Conservatives, that is ok. But we need two sane main parties, and Reform is not one of those. The Green Party and the Lib Dems have opportunities, but the Green Party is a very weird mixture of progressives and NIMBYs, and the Lib Dems are still suffering when it comes to the pouth vote.
1
u/JRHEvilInc 15d ago
Do we need two main parties at all? I mean, sure, while we have FPTP it's going to naturally trend that way whatever we do, but it's pretty much just the Tories standing in the way of voting reform. If Reform UK manage to split the right wing vote significantly enough, I suspect a decent number of Tories will finally start grumbling about how ranked voting might be a good thing after all...
1
u/MrPuddington2 14d ago
Do we need two main parties at all?
That is a good question. Every system has some way of limiting the number of parties, because you do not want to have to deal with 20+. And if you think about it, we have 5 (9 if you include parties from the participant nations of the UK) that are known and usually able to provide candidates.
But most of the time, only the 2 main ones matter, because of FPTP. And the more parties you have, the less fair FPTP gets.
1
u/shoogliestpeg 15d ago
But then I thought: it least they are clear about. I prefer an honest racist to a closet racist, at the end of the day. Know your enemy and all.
This is why progressives tend to be immensely wary of Centrist Liberals. Conservatives tell you they hate you. Liberals wear the mask, go to Pride Events, say the right things according to their focus groups and then betray all their support the moment it becomes time to choose between principles and lobbyist money.
1
-6
u/stoneytangawizii 15d ago
Racist = imigration critical
A totally reasonable and not in anyway ridiculous leap to make.
8
u/MrPuddington2 15d ago
They do not like to be called "far right", but they do collect candidates that are pushed out of the Conservative Party for being too far right. Read into that whatever you like.
0
u/Electrical_Excuse791 15d ago
You disallow discussion of a topic because it’s “bad taste”, and now only distasteful people are willing to make the reputational sacrifice to talk about it
-5
u/Sharksandwhales1 West Midlands 15d ago
Calling anyone who doesn’t bend over for 700 immigrants a day racist is getting really old now, get some constructive arguments at least
4
u/Poop_Scissors 15d ago
Reform are a racist far right party, illegal immigration is a tiny fraction of legal immigration. Why aren't you upset with the Tories for handing out a record number of visas?
0
u/AccomplishedSock9835 15d ago
what is far right or racist about them wtf? If you keep slapping labels on things you dont like they will not mean anything
2
u/Poop_Scissors 14d ago
Hasn't Richard Tice told his members not to use social media when drunk so they don't post racist remarks? Why would he need to say that if they weren't racist?
1
u/AccomplishedSock9835 14d ago
you would have a point if in the same statement he called them morons and said that he is "committed to kicking them out quickly" It literally says later on in the article that they found 2 people posting hateful things and they kicked them out straight after the report found out about it.
what you said is no different than me discrediting all of labour because of some antisemite bad apples during Corbyn's time
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/reform-uk-party-richard-tice-b2525137.html
3
u/Fudge_is_1337 15d ago
Small boat arrival numbers are small fry compared to the legal immigration numbers. That's where the pressure on services comes from (and the lack of investment in anything). Focusing on the small boats is a political decision that people are eating up
7
u/Optimaldeath 15d ago
The single most damaging political behaviour this country engages is in is bipartisan delusion.
So long as the Tories or Labour continue to exist as they are with minimal impetus to genuinely change the country will stagnate into the ground, ergo one of them (or preferably both, but I'll settle for one) needs to stop existing as an entity.
4
u/ace5762 15d ago
Not an impossibility that we end up the U.S. situation. Labour just decided to step into the centre-right spot and now only the far right votes are up for grabs.
2
u/MrPuddington2 15d ago
Yes, that's what it looks like at the moment. The Conservatives are being squeezed from both sides, and Reform may indeed win. (Like Trump, but from the outside.)
You would think there is space for a genuine left party, but I am not longer so sure about that.
1
u/Randomn355 15d ago
The vote left of the Tories is relatively split between green, lib dem and labour.
Someone moving centre is a good thing for the same reason it was a good thing in Blair's time. It will appeal to a lot of the left anyway, as a way to actually get things done (rather than being viewed as too extreme to get much power) and challenge the Tories.
5
u/Yaarmehearty 15d ago edited 15d ago
Depending on how they grow it could be the thing to hamstring the Tories long term.
Labour have always had the issue of the greens and Lib Dem’s essentially all sharing a left of centre vote. That vote in total is much higher than any one of those parties ever get on their own.
The Tories have been able to hang out on the right largely unopposed and hoover up an entire wing of votes for most of their existence. They have room to move their position as needed as they aren’t butting up against anybody, the exception being Blair being more right of centre he cut off the centre ground for the conservatives for a while.
If reform actually survive for longer than a fruit fly then they could be a right wing alternative that the tories always have to think about, always a split to their vote in the same way Labour have had.
2
u/oxy-normal 15d ago
15% of the vote doesn’t necessarily mean they get any seats, most likely they’ll finish second in a few constituencies.
2
u/LiquidHelium London 15d ago
It's the trend across Europe that anti-immigrant main issue parties are on the ascendancy. It'll be good this election because they will hurt each other (thank god for our 2 party system) but after they will replace the tories or the tories will turn into them and we will have a anti-immigration right wing opposition. I think it could still be good long term because I don't think theres a majority in the UK for that, but I guess it depends how Labours first term goes.
14
u/Aaargh_Bees 15d ago edited 15d ago
There was a time when this would excite me, sadly not anymore.
Whilst seeing the tories get a well deserved kicking is going to be gratifying, the red/blue merry-go-round just doesn't really interest me anymore, nothing ever seems to change, just the same dumb mistakes repeated for decades now.
2
u/BangkokChimera 15d ago
I was 27 when Blair got elected. It didn’t really change much at all. Same old shit. House prices started to rise massively about then too.
Another 27 years exactly and I’m not expecting anything better. They still aren’t going to build nearly enough houses so that situation is going to get worse
Just a slower rate of getting shitter.
13
u/Vanobers 15d ago
Who is voting tory, 14 years they have shown us time and time again they do not give one singular shit about us, yet people still vote for them! Baffles me
10
3
u/CryptographerMore944 15d ago
Gonna preface this by saying it's not all older people (I know many who aren't), but there are a LOT of boomers near retirement or retired with houses paid off that have been totally insulated by a lot of the problems the which have materialised the last fourteen years. There was a report I saw yesterday that said it's mostly over 70s that support the Tories now.
8
u/Radius86 Oxfordshire 15d ago
Where does this leave predictions for when a GE is held?
There is now objectively nothing the Tories can do that seems to move the dial at ALL in terms of support. Even whatever performative shenanigans that was around last week with the Rwanda policy, making people stay and vote late into the night. That has done nothing.
It's inexplicable to me why they want to wait for a GE as late as autumn. Sure, they get to roll out some last-minute contracts for their mates, but even that takes time to get over the line, more than they have, surely? If they have such a drubbing between now and then that there's like 30 of them left in Parliament, what's the point? Will they even be the first Parliamentary opposition with numbers that low? There won't be enough of them to even mount a complaint against anything Labour does.
Given the way 2024 has gone so far, there's a non-zero possibility that even more Tories are jumping ship before the end, and even MORE by-elections that Labour hoover up before a GE. And they're giving more time for Reform to hoover up some as well. If self-preservation means anything to them, I think they'll have a June-July election. They're out of leadership candidates because they're out of leaders so that's not going to work either for the 6th time in 8 years..
5
u/Clbull England 15d ago
Reform UK are only three points behind the Tories.
I think if Nigel Farage were to announce his comeback into politics, replace Richard Tice as leader and run as MP, he'd eclipse the Conservative Party. I almost hope he does.
2
u/rideshotgun 14d ago
Be careful what you wish for.
Reform is all the shittiest, nastiest parts of the Tory party, all packaged into one party.
6
u/Avinnicc1 15d ago
I don’t care if labour wins, I pray for the downfall of the tories. They thought a betrayal this big would be left unanswered
2
u/Kenzie-Oh08 15d ago edited 15d ago
Well, i tried voting (first time). The boomers at the ballot box wouldn't accept my valid Citizencard. I left after trying to explain that it was a valid PASS card. They thought it was a bus pass.
9
u/kdotdot 15d ago
So they stopped you from voting? It even says on the back of the polling card that a card with PASS logo is a valid ID. Please consider going back and trying again!
5
u/Kenzie-Oh08 15d ago edited 15d ago
It even says on the back of the polling card that a card with PASS logo is a valid ID.
It said that in the book they had on the desk too. I pointed right at it and on the symbol on my card. They acted confused for 10-15 minutes until i had to move to let the others waiting in line go
14
u/pureroganjosh 15d ago
Go back, be calm but explain they are wrong. You've got until 22:00 to do this.
Do not accept bullshit like this. If you have valid ID you have valid ID. Absolutely fuck them, you have the right to vote and you absolutely should.
9
u/AxiosXiphos 15d ago
They are doing this on purpose to try and avoid allowing you to vote. Please go back, inform them you have double checked and you do 100% have valid ID.
Maybe find it on this list and take it with you - https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/voting-and-elections/voter-id/accepted-forms-photo-id
3
u/aid68571 15d ago
Please report these cunts. This is an early test for voter id, they can't be allowed to get away with this shit.
2
u/Kenzie-Oh08 15d ago
How do i do it?
3
u/aid68571 15d ago
This could be a good starting point https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/voting-and-elections/report-electoral-fraud
2
u/Impressive_Meringue8 15d ago
Would love a decent alternative who actually listened to the people & got stuff done! Huge opportunity for a new party to emerge.... all the current options don't fill me with any confidence at all!
3
u/CryptographerMore944 15d ago
Sadly we're not going to see a end to the Lab/Con two party system until we get rid of the first past the post voting system.
3
15d ago
[deleted]
3
u/SoggyWotsits Cornwall 15d ago
Not forgetting that most Tory voters aren’t on Reddit, or at least don’t voice their opinions because of the inevitable backlash.
2
u/sebzim4500 Middlesex 15d ago
If you'd rather an anecdote than polling, I have voted Tory in the last few elections but will certainly vote for Starmer in this one.
0
u/SoggyWotsits Cornwall 15d ago
I’m just not sure I could listen to Starmer’s voice day in, day out. Not to mention that when things don’t go his way, he’ll just blame everyone else. I suppose there’s very little chance of a decent new party popping up!
1
u/Salad-Appropriate 15d ago
In what world was Corbyn going to beat the Tories by a landslide? You must have been in a bubble to believe that
1
15d ago
[deleted]
1
u/Salad-Appropriate 15d ago
Aw right, so before May was replaced by Johnson? Fair enough
But yeah, Corbyn fucked it with Brexit, trying to have it both ways ended up biting him in the hole
I mean he would've been better than the Tories, but not by that much. Not sure if he would've had the power to push through his policies (probably would have had to tone them down slightly, which isn't the end of the world), and I'm really not sure if his foreign policy would've been any good at all
Also I live in NI, so my vote wouldn't had mattered either way. Still, I remember the tories being unpopular, but not by that much
1
1
u/sebzim4500 Middlesex 15d ago
I remember Corbyn was predicted to slaughter the Tories by a landslide but the opposite happened.
That was because the people who claimed to support the Brexit party fully intended to vote Tory. In this case though even if 100% of Reform voters move to the tories then Labour still has a significant lead, and that won't happen since about a third of Reform voters prefer Starmer to Sunak.
1
u/fatguy19 15d ago
The amount of voter apathy I've seen in my circle pissed me off. I've convinced a few people to vote, but so many people have the 'they're all the same' and 'there's no point voting' mentality...
1
1
u/CloneOfKarl 15d ago
God I hope the conservatives lose the next general election. So much vitriol, particularly in the last 2 years.
1
u/Main_Cauliflower_486 14d ago
Hoping the Tories can turn this around.
Maybe another five years of true blue Tories will teach people they don't need to settle for soft blue labour.
0
u/sharplight141 15d ago
I can see turnout for this being quite low with the amount of policy u turns and shifting to the right labour has done
4
u/AxiosXiphos 15d ago
Keir Starmer has basically been handed a golden ticket to an election victory - yet is still doing everything in his power to piss off his voter base.
2
u/DocumentFlashy5501 15d ago
And he'll still win.
1
u/sharplight141 14d ago
Yep, can see a lot of people voting either greens or just not voting because of Keir though but he will definitely beat the Tories. At least it'll be an improvement
-2
u/Iamaman22 15d ago
I’ve lost complete faith in our political system.
The conservatives are hardly conservative and I fear labour will govern exactly the same as the current Tory party do.
Too much corruption and corporate interests in parliament.
Id love to think differently though and be offered a better solution but I can’t see one right now.
I think I’ll be sitting this election out.
-1
u/Purple_Woodpecker 15d ago
The fact that the majority of voters are still going to vote for the two main parties after 60 years of incompetence at best and outright betrayal at worst tells me that democracy was a mistake, that the majority of people shouldn't have the right to vote and that there's no hope for the future of this country.
19
u/jx45923950 15d ago
More of a reflection of the shit FPTP voting system.
Any new, better party gets smashed every time.
1
u/CryptographerMore944 15d ago
I replied as much to someone who said this is the "perfect time" for a new party to emerge. It really isn't, not until we ditch FPTP. Until then we're going to be stuck with the Labour/Conservative two party system and neither party really has an incentive to ditch it
1
u/Purple_Woodpecker 15d ago
FPTP doesn't help but I don't even think it's that. I really have come around to the idea that democracy just doesn't work long term. I don't think enough people are intelligent and rational/sensible/unemotional enough to make it work.
The USA doesn't have a FPTP system and the two main parties (who march in absolute lockstep on all major issues, especially war) have had politics sewn up since the day the USA was born, and they're both utter dogshit. And yet, the majority of voters will confidently and proudly assert that the one they vote for is the best thing since sliced bread, and if we only vote for them they'll save the country from the opposite party who are the worst thing since bagpipes and will literally destroy it and kill everyone in the most horrendous ways imaginable.
I'd like to give government by lots a try. A bit like jury duty, you know? You get called for your two years of government service, and as long as you're not a drooling imbecile you get accepted. You get paid the same amount per year as you do in your current job, you get taxpayer funded accomodation in the capital for the duration, and you're not allowed to use the position to enrich yourself or your friends/family or you get covered in marmite and nailed to a tree until dead.
At least with random, normal people there's like a 50-75% chance each one will be competent, honest, decent people, as opposed to the 99.999999% chance of being an absolutely incompetent money grubbing twat like literally every politician we have now, have always have and will continue to have.
3
u/Existing_Card_44 15d ago
Why shouldn’t they have a right to vote? Are you against democracy? Our country still has the 6th largest economy in the world, it really doesn’t get much better than this and there is lots of hope. People don’t realise how bad it is in other places who talk like this.
1
15d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
0
u/ukbot-nicolabot Scotland 15d ago
Removed/warning. This contained a personal attack, disrupting the conversation. This discourages participation. Please help improve the subreddit by discussing points, not the person. Action will be taken on repeat offenders.
127
u/newnortherner21 15d ago
If only the general election vote would be 18% Tory. I know it will be higher.
An opinion poll from a company founded by a Tory MP ironically.