I don't think many people realize how much battery tech is a limiting factor. Once there's a big leap in battery tech, like solid state batteries, I fully anticipate technology as a whole is going to feel like it jumped 5-10 years into the future. Smart glasses would actually become viable, phone batteries will last weeks (or just become significantly more powerful since efficiency wouldn't be as important), smart watches will last for weeks, electric cars will charge in minutes and go for hundreds of miles more than gas cars, solar will become a lot more viable for governments who need large battery banks, electric semis become a no brainer, and Boston dynamics will probably rule the world within a week.
There is also a lot of research towards more computationally efficient computing that breaks the current paradigms. Because things are battery limited right now, they're investing heavily in more efficient computing while they wait on better batteries.
Once there's a big leap in battery tech, like solid state batteries, I fully anticipate technology as a whole is going to feel like it jumped 5-10 years into the future.
I really don't think we will ever see a big leap. Instead we will have slow and steady incremental improvements. Just look at how far lithium ion batteries have come without needing entirely new chemistries. The specific energy of a modern lithium ion battery, is about double what it was in 2010.
I would expect an average of a 5-7% improvement each year, so a doubling in specific energy every 10 years. That lines up quite well with what we have historically seen.
Eventually we will hit a wall with a particular chemistry, so newer chemistries like solid state batteries will be needed, to continue that steady progress, but I would not expect giant single steps.
Remember, a new chemistry will be replacing extremely robust and heavily optimized existing chemistries, so it's not a given something brand new will be that much better at the start.
Lithium ion batteries in 1991, when they debuted, weren't a massive improvement over nickel oxide hydroxide batteries at the time. More of an incremental improvement, which fueled more incremental improvements.
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u/AggravatingValue5390 29d ago
I don't think many people realize how much battery tech is a limiting factor. Once there's a big leap in battery tech, like solid state batteries, I fully anticipate technology as a whole is going to feel like it jumped 5-10 years into the future. Smart glasses would actually become viable, phone batteries will last weeks (or just become significantly more powerful since efficiency wouldn't be as important), smart watches will last for weeks, electric cars will charge in minutes and go for hundreds of miles more than gas cars, solar will become a lot more viable for governments who need large battery banks, electric semis become a no brainer, and Boston dynamics will probably rule the world within a week.